SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has highlighted concerns over India’s declining birth rate after new data showed the country’s fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level needed to maintain long-term population stability.
In a post on X, Musk wrote, “India’s birth rate has fallen below replacement. Among those most educated, India’s birth rate fell below replacement many years ago.”
His comments came in response to figures shared online indicating that India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has declined to 1.9 children per woman, falling below the replacement level of 2.1 for the first time. Data cited in the discussion showed that the country’s fertility rate dropped from 2.3 to 1.9 over the past decade, while Delhi’s fertility rate has reportedly fallen to 1.2.
The issue has also been highlighted in the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) 2025 State of World Population Report, which confirmed that India’s fertility rate now stands below replacement level.
Demographers generally consider a fertility rate of 2.1 births per woman necessary to maintain a stable population in the absence of migration. Sustained fertility levels below that threshold can eventually lead to population decline as successive generations become smaller.
The development comes even as India remains the world’s most populous country, with a population estimated at more than 1.46 billion people. India surpassed China in 2023 to become the most populous nation globally.
According to the UNFPA report, India has recorded significant gains in healthcare, education and overall development during recent decades. However, the agency noted that several challenges continue to persist, including social and economic inequalities, maternal mortality and gender-based discrimination in parts of the country.
The report also identified early marriage and teenage pregnancies as factors contributing to maternal deaths among women under the age of 24.
India’s birth rate has fallen below replacement.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 6, 2026
Among those most educated, India’s birth rate fell below replacement many years ago. https://t.co/RsWf0PK6wx
Population experts have long linked falling fertility rates to a combination of factors including higher levels of education, increasing urbanisation, greater participation of women in the workforce and changing attitudes towards family size. Similar trends have been observed across several Indian states and in many countries around the world.
Recent discussions among economists and demographers have also focused on the long-term implications of declining fertility, including its potential impact on workforce availability, economic growth, healthcare systems and ageing populations.
While India continues to benefit from a large and relatively young population, experts say fertility trends will remain an important factor in shaping the country’s demographic and economic future in the decades ahead.
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